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NEA-1819 BURD.

BURD, Bayesian estimation in data analysis of Probabilistic Safety Assessment

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1. NAME OR DESIGNATION OF PROGRAM:  BURD.
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2. COMPUTERS
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Program name Package id Status Status date
BURD NEA-1819/01 Tested 05-JUL-2012

Machines used:

Package ID Orig. computer Test computer
NEA-1819/01 PC Windows PC Windows
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3. DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM OR FUNCTION

BURD (Bayesian Update for Reliability Data) is a simple code that can be used to obtain a Bayesian estimate easily in the data analysis of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). According to the Bayes' theorem, basically, the code facilitates calculations of posterior distribution given the prior and the likelihood (evidence) distributions.
  
The distinctive features of the program, BURD, are the following:
- The input consists of the prior and likelihood functions that can be chosen from the built-in statistical distributions.
- The available prior distributions are uniform, Jeffrey's non informative, beta, gamma, and log-normal that are most-frequently used in performing PSA.
- For likelihood function, the user can choose from four statistical distributions, e.g., beta, gamma, binomial and poisson.
- A simultaneous graphic display of the prior and posterior distributions facilitate an intuitive interpretation of the results.
- Export facilities for the graphic display screen and text-type outputs are available.
- Three options for treating zero-evidence data are provided.
- Automatic setup of an integral calculus section for a Bayesian updating.
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4. METHODS

The posterior distribution is estimated in accordance with the Bayes' theorem, given the prior and the likelihood (evidence) distributions.
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5. RESTRICTIONS ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM

The accuracy of the results depends on the calculational error of the statistical function library in MS Excel.
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6. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

The running time is dependent on the size of the mesh and the capacity of PC. Most of the BURD examples take within a few seconds.
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9. STATUS
Package ID Status date Status
NEA-1819/01 05-JUL-2012 Tested at NEADB
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10. REFERENCES
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11. HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS:  PC Windows.
NEA-1819/01
Tested at the NEADB on:
- COMPUTER : Dell INTEL Duo E6550, 2.33 GHz (for Windows)
- OPERATING SYSTEM : DOS, under Windows XP Pro SP 3
- COMPILER: lahey/Fujitsu F 95 v7.1 (Windows)
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12. PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE(S) USED
Package ID Computer language
NEA-1819/01 VISUAL BASIC
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13. SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS:  WINDOWS 98 SE, NT, 2000, ME and XP.
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14. OTHER PROGRAMMING OR OPERATING INFORMATION OR RESTRICTIONS

Visual Basic 6 was used. The program BURD makes extensive use of the function library of MS Excel to calculate posterior distributions, and Graphic server 4.5 version to provide a convenient user interface.
  
There are no related databases or edited input/output files because BURD is considered as a calculator.
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15. NAME AND ESTABLISHMENT OF AUTHORS

Seung-cheol Jang and Jin-Kyun Park
Integrated Safety Assessment Division
Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
Daejeon
Republic of Korea
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16. MATERIAL AVAILABLE
NEA-1819/01
Source codes
BURD setup   Installation file
Electronic documentation
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17. CATEGORIES
  • G. Radiological Safety, Hazard and Accident Analysis
  • P. General Mathematical and Computing System Routines

Keywords: Bayesian method, probability safety analysis.