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on 11/14/24 at 9:36 AM
The NEA has a long tradition of promoting co-operation and assistance among its member countries on preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergencies. This is implemented through its Committee on Radiological Protection and Public Health (CRPPH) and Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM). These bodies facilitate the sharing of knowledge and experience in policy, regulation and technical matters, as well as addressing and solving emerging issues.
With the support of the WPNEM, an Expert Group on the comparison and understanding of Dose Prognosis (EGDP) was established in 2018 to investigate the use of radiation dose prognosis tools and their supporting assessment chains. The EGDP set out to review how radiation dose prognosis can contribute to enhanced cross-border information exchange, to develop a series of recommendations in terms of what can be considered “good agreements” and to identify areas for improvement of dose prognosis tools.
The area of dose prognosis was specifically highlighted as an outcome arising from the NEA’s fifth International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX-5), which led directly to the creation of the EGDP. The publication of this report marks the completion of the EGDP’s programme of work over a three-year period. To gather the evidence required to formulate its recommendations, the EGDP conducted a series of drills (or exercises) among the EGDP participants to observe differences between the methods employed and their outputs. The report provides an understanding of why the results are, or may be, different and analyses how the identified differences can be understood and taken into account by neighbouring countries or territories for their respective situational interpretation and decisions. Recommendations about what could be considered “good general agreements” on the outputs are also
considered.
The recommendations are based on the examination of those elements of the dose assessment chain which lead to variations in outputs that may influence the implementation of protective actions in the event of a nuclear or radiological emergency. This includes factors such as the source term and weather forecast data employed, the different types of available atmospheric transport model (ATM), the estimation of radiation exposures by dose modelling, the various regulatory frameworks in place and the variety of decision support products that can be provided to decision-makers. Some elements, such as the selection of an appropriate source term, led to significant variations in the outputs between participating countries and territory and are therefore associated with a key recommendation to encourage greater collaboration on access to source term data and enhanced cross-border information exchange. This report explores each element of the dose assessment chain in detail to generate its key findings and recommendations.
