ESTS0204 SHC

1. NAME OR DESIGNATION OF PROGRAM:  SHC
SHC, seismic/hazard characterization eastern U.S.

3. DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM OR FUNCTION

SHC was developed as part of the Eastern United States (EUS) Seismic Hazard Characterization (SHC) Project to design an SHC methodology for the region east of the Rocky Mountains in a form suitable for probabilistic risk assessment and to apply that methodology to 69 site locations, some  of them with local soil conditions. The method developed uses expert opinions to obtain the input to the analysis. SHC contains four modules which calculate the seismic hazard at a site located in a region of diffuse seismicity, where the seismicity is modeled by area sources. SHC integrates the opinions of 11 seismicity and five  ground-motion experts. The PRDS model generates the discrete probability density function of the distances to the site for the various seismic source zones. These probability distributions are used by the COMAP module to generate the set of all alternative maps and the discrete probability density of the seismic zonation maps for each expert. The third module, ALEAS, uses these maps and their  weights to calculate the best estimate and constant percentile hazard distribution resulting from the choice of a given seismicity  expert for all ground-motion experts. This module can be used alone  to perform a seismic hazard analysis as well as in conjunction with  the other modules. The fourth module, COMB, combines the best- estimate and constant-percentile hazard over all seismicity experts, using the set of weights calculated by ALEAS, to produce the final probability distribution of the hazard for the site under consideration so that the hazard analysis can be performed for any location in the EUS. Local geological-site characteristics are incorporated in a generic fashion, and the data are developed in a generic manner.

4. METHOD OF SOLUTION

SHC uses a seismic-source approach utilizing statistical and geological evidence to define geographical regions with homogeneous Poisson activity throughout the zone, described by  a magnitude-recurrence relationship. The seismic hazard methodology  is based on a probability model of the occurrence and distribution of earthquakes and the attenuation of the ground motion from a source to a site. It also includes modeling of local site effects, such as soil types. The earthquake location is assumed to be uniformly distributed throughout the zone, and the ground-motion model expresses the decay with distance of the median value of a ground-motion parameter. In addition, the methodology incorporates the uncertainty in all parameters into the results. The uncertainty  in the hazard is estimated by a Monte Carlo simulation process in which all levels of confidence are normalized and treated as probability values. It includes a probability distribution of the maps for each seismicity expert, distributions for the uncertainty in each of the seismicity parameters, and distribution of the ground-motion models for each of the ground-motion experts.

5. RESTRICTIONS ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM

Maxima of -
150 zones per combination
100 combinations
96 zones
50 simulations per attenuation expert
50 zone clusters for alternative boundaries
35 zones per cluster
30 maps
30 zones per map
21 distances per distribution of a zone
20 zones in a circle of influence
20 coefficients per attenuation model
11 seismic experts
10 accelerations
  9 frequencies
  7 attenuation models per expert
  6 attenuation experts for ALEAS
  5 attenuation experts for COMBS
  5 return periods
  4 regions

6. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

NESC executed the sample problem in approximately 3 CP minutes on a Cray Y-MP.

7. UNUSUAL FEATURES OF THE PROGRAM

SHC uses expert opinion to supplement the available data on zonation, seismicity, and ground-motion modelling. The code produces an estimate of the distribution of the hazard rather than just point estimates. SHC also includes an allowance for truncation of the maximum ground motion and corrections for the effect that soil conditions at a site have on the ground motion. In addition, the method allows the expert to select the truncated exponential distribution and to include the  correlation between their estimates of the parameters of the distribution for the magnitudes of earthquakes for each zone.

8. RELATED AND AUXILIARY PROGRAMS:

10. REFERENCES

- B.C. Davis, SHC Software and DataBase, description for users,
along with the executive and command routines written for the NRC'    SUN 4/260 system, Draft, March 1991.
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing, J.C. Chen, and B.C.
  Davis, Seismic Hazard Characterization of the Eastern United
  States, Volume 1: Methodology and Results for Ten Sites,
  UCID-20421 Vol. 1, April 1985.
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing, J.C. Chen, and B.C.
  Davis, Seismic Hazard Characterization of the Eastern United
  States, Volume 2: Questionnaires, UCID-20421 Vol. 2, April 1985.

- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R. W. Mensing and J.C.Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Methodology, Input Data and Comparisons to
  Previous Results for Ten Test Sites
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol. 1 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Results and Discussion for the Batch 1 Sites
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol. 2 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Results and Discussion for the Batch 2 Sites
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol. 3 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Results and Discussion for the Batch 3 Sites
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol. 4 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Results and Discussion for the Batch 4 Sites
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol. 5 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Regional Comparisons Between Sites, Site
  Effects, General Discussion, and Conclusions
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol.6 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Questionnaires
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol.7 (January 1989).
- D.L. Bernreuter, J.B. Savy, R.W. Mensing and J.C. Chen:
  Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of
  the Rocky Mountains - Supplementary Seismic Hazard Results for
  Sites with Multiple Soil Conditions
  NUREG/CR-5250 (UCID-21517) Vol.8 (January 1989).
- C. Yuelys-Miksis:
  SHC, NESC No. 1121.CRA2, SHC Cray Version Tape Description and
  Implementation Information
  NESC Note 92-32 (December 9, 1991).

11. MACHINE REQUIREMENTS

On a CRAY Y-MP 174 Kbytes of memory were required for PRDS, 203 Kbytes for COMAP, 189 Kbytes for ALEAS, and 120 Kbytes for COMBS.

13. OPERATING SYSTEM UNDER WHICH PROGRAM IS EXECUTED:  CTSS (Cray2), UNICOS 6.1 (Cray Y-MP).

14. OTHER PROGRAMMING OR OPERATING INFORMATION OR RESTRICTIONS

SHC
requires routines from the proprietary IMSL Version 9.2 software; these are not included. The SHC plotting subroutines in COMBS and ALEAS are dependent on LLNL-environment plotting devices; suitable alternatives are required for plotting in other environments.

15. NAME AND ESTABLISHMENT OF AUTHORS

J. Savy and B. Davis
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

source program   mag tapePRDS.F PRDS FORTRAN Source                 SRCTP
source program   mag tapeCOMAP.F COMAP FORTRAN Source               SRCTP
source program   mag tapeALEAS.F ALEAS FORTRAN Source               SRCTP
source program   mag tapeCOMBS.F COMBS FORTRAN Source               SRCTP
test-case data   mag tapeSITESID.DAT Site Coordinates PRDS S.P.     DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeELTXYLG.DAT PRDS S.P.                      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeUSMAP.DAT U.S. map PRDS S.P.               DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAXI.LIB Seismicity expert 1 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX2.LIB Seismicity expert 2 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX3.LIB Seismicity expert 3 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX4.LIB Seismicity expert 4 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX5.LIB Seismicity expert 5 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX6.LIB Seismicity expert 6 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX7.LIB Seismicity expert 7 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX8.LIB Seismicity expert 8 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX9.LIB Seismicity expert 9 PRDS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX10.LIB Seismicity expert 10 PRDS S.P.    DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX11.LIB Seismicity expert 11 PRDS S.P.    DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX12.LIB Seismicity expert 12 PRDS S.P.    DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeAX13.LIB Seismicity expert 13 PRDS S.P.    DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeCOMENU.DAT COMAP Sample Problem            DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC1ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 1 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC2ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 2 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC3ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 3 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC4ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 4 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC5ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 5 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC6ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 6 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC7ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 7 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC8ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 8 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC9ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone expert 9 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC10ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone exp. 10 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC11ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone exp. 11 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC12ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone exp. 12 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC13ALTZ.LIB Altern. zone exp. 13 COMAP S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeACMENU.DAT ALEAS Sample Problem            DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeATNFB.DAT Ground motion 75 sites ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeGMXFB.DAT Grd motion Attenuation ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeSITECOR.DAT Site condition ALEAS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC1SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 1 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC2SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 2 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC3SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 3 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC4SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 4 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC5SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 5 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC6SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 6 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC7SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 7 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC8SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 8 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC9SIS.LIB Seismici. for expert 9 ALEAS S.P.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC10SIS.LIB Seismici. expert 10 ALEAS S.P.  DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC11SIS.LIB Seismici. expert 11 ALEAS S.P.  DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC12SIS.LIB Seismici. expert 12 ALEAS S.P.  DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeC13SIS.LIB Seismici. expert 13 ALEAS S.P.  DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeCOMBIN.DAT Data Specifying COMBS S.P.      DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeSHC1.JOB Control File, Data + archived Lib.DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeSHC2.JOB Create & store PRDS,COMAP,ALEAS...DATTP
test-case data   mag tapeSHC3.JOB Exec. PRDS,COMAP,ALEAS,COMBS Prog.DATTP
test-case output mag tapeOCAC2.OUT COMBS Sample Problem Output      OUTTP
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 1 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 2 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 3 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 4 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 5 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 6 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 7 (January 1989)        REPPT
report                   NUREG/CR-5250 Vol. 8 (January 1989)        REPPT
prog. note               NESC Note 92-32 (December 9, 1991)         NOTPT