OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) Workshop on


    Testing PSHA Results and Benefit of Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment

    4-6 February 2015
    Pavia, Italy

    Hosted by EUCENTRE (European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering)

    Preliminary announcement and call for papers

    Deadline for abstracts:

    Online abstract submittal form

    24 October 2014

    Notification of accepted papers:

     

    20 November 2014

    Deadline for full paper submission and registration:

    Online registration form

    10 January 2015

    Organsation and host

    The CSNI workshop on Testing PSHA Results and Benefit of Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment will be held from 4-6 February 2015 in Pavia, Italy, hosted by EUCENTRE and coordinated by OECD/NEA and IAEA. This first announcement is to inform you of this event and call for papers to be submitted for presentation at the workshop.

    More information will be available at www.oecd-nea.org/nsd/calendar.html.

    Objective

    The objective of this workshop is to foster exchanges between geologists, seismologists, statisticians and engineers so as to share experiences in progress related to developments in testing the methodologies of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) and the benefits of Bayesian techniques applied to seismic hazards. The goal is to address the current status of the regulatory arena, identifying and recommending good practices for member countries and exploring future research and development (R&D) to be developed on this topic.

    In recent years, increasing efforts have been devoted to the assessment of the reliability of PSHA results. Different kinds of procedures have been tested and many papers have provided useful information on this subject. 

    Consistent with the pattern of previous CSNI workshops, the deliverables and expected results will be the following:

    • a description of the state-of-the-art in methodologies for testing the reliability of PSHA results;
    • a description of application studies conducted in different areas concerning the testing of PSHA results versus available observations in order to get an objective comparison and to improve the confidence in the results;
    • a description of the state-of-the-art in Bayesian techniques for seismic hazard assessment;
    • a description of application studies conducted in different contexts to determine the benefit of Bayesian techniques for seismic hazard assessment;
    • recommendations on:
      • which testing procedure is the most appropriate depending on the available data;
      • good practices and recommendations to implement the testing procedures of the PSHA results;
      • good practices for the implementation of Bayesian techniques in the field of seismic hazard assessment;
      • R&D activities to be developed on the subject.

    Learning from others is the key to success and progress. Information obtained from this workshop should give crucial understanding and interpretation of potential differences or discrepancies, including proposing approaches to address them.

    Background

    Considering the high uncertainties in Seismic Hazard Assessment and the importance of PSHA results for seismic design and cost, it is very important to raise the issue of consistency-checking of the PSHA results. In 2008, the OECD/NEA (OECD Nuclear Energy Agency) in cooperation with the IAEA organised a workshop on Recent Findings and Developments in PSHA: Methodologies and Applications (OECD/NEA, 2008). The main objective was to review recent research, and regulatory and industry issues associated with PSHA. Two main recommendations were addressed:

    • the importance of undertaking consistency checks, which can provide valuable information, even though they are substandard to what a validation would be. Guidance on consistency checks should also be a major part of any broader PSHA;
    • using Bayesian updating methods in this area is to be encouraged. It can be of important value and help further PSHA work (both research work and applications).

    In the last decade, several approaches to the testing of PSHA results have been published, and several experiences applied the Bayesian technique to update the PSHA models. Also, several recent opinion papers are encouraging hazard analysis to carry out tests and applications that have been done in different countries (United States, New Zealand, Italy and France). The techniques rely on various statistical assumptions. Any testing technique must cope with the observation time windows available. Considering the observation time window in seismology testing (~100 years at maximum for instrumental networks, and several centuries for historical data) at the return periods of interest in engineering seismology is a real challenge. Recent literature shows that PSH models can be evaluated using different types of observations, such as intensities, synthetic accelerations (converted from intensities or predicted from an earthquake catalogue), true accelerations recorded at instrumented sites or maximum observed acceleration levels based on precarious fragile structures.

    Scope, content and outline

    The workshop will include an introductory session, technical sessions devoted to technical presentations by participants on the topics outlined in the objectives (§2) and a final session. The final session will summarize the discussions and develop conclusions and recommendations for possible further actions by the CSNI. All the participants are expected to take part in the discussion and in the formulation of conclusions in the final session.

    Papers and case studies addressing the issues mentioned in the objectives (§2) are welcomed. Several sessions with ample time for discussion on these topics will be defined accordingly.

    Logistics and participation

    Participants

    As is usual with OECD/NEA workshops, participation is open to experts from regulatory authorities and their technical support organizations, research organizations, NPP owners and operators, NPP designers and vendors, and industry associations and observers from OECD/NEA member countries. Nominations should be made through the WGIAGE Technical Secretariat. Those wishing to make a presentation at the workshop should submit an abstract with their preliminary registration form.

    The meeting is opened to a small number of experts from partner countries. The participation of these experts will be arranged by the WGIAGE Technical Secretariat.

    Registration

    Participants should fill in the attached registration form and send it to the WGIAGE Technical Secretariat:

    Olli NEVANDER
    Nuclear Safety Division
    OECD/NEA
    Le Seine St-Germain
    12, boulevard des Îles
    92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux
    FRANCE

    Fax: +33 (0)1 45 24 11 10
    E-mail:

    A registration fee will be required. The cost currently being determined will include workshop fees, reception and coffee and refreshments between sessions. Details will be provided later.

    The organising committee will confirm the acceptance of registration for the workshop.

    Location and accommodation

    The workshop will be held at EUCENTRE in Pavia, Italy. Details will be provided later.

    Language

    All presentations and discussions will be in English, and good command of the English language will be necessary to fully benefit from the workshop.

    Papers

    Participants wishing to present papers shall submit an abstract (between 200 and 400 words). All abstracts should be submitted by 24 October 2014 with the registration form. (Note: All submitted abstracts and papers should be submitted electronically in MS Word and "Times 11" font.)

    The organising committee will review abstracts, and authors will be notified by 20 November 2014. Specific instructions for the format of papers will be provided to authors. Presentations should not exceed 20 minutes.

    Workshop proceedings

    Proceedings from the workshop will be published and will include papers from the opening session, conclusions and recommendations from the discussion groups and a summary of panel discussions and information papers submitted by participants to the workshop.

    Organising Committee

    The organising committee organized the sessions and the final program for the workshop.

    The following persons form the organising committee of the workshop:

    Mr. Pierre Labbe EDF France Chair
    Mr. Paolo Bazzuro EUCENTRE Italy Chair
    Mrs. Gloria Senfaute EDF France  
    Mr. Emanuel Viallet EDF France  
    Mr. Gian-Michele Calvi EUCENTRE Italy  
    Mr. Yosimitshu Fukushima IAEA International  
    Mr. Olli Nevander OECD/NEA International  

    Contacts

    Mr. Olli NEVANDER
    Nuclear Safety Division
    OECD Nuclear Energy Agency
    Le Seine St-Germain
    12, boulevard des Îles
    92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux
    France

    Tel.: +33 1 45 24 10 58
    E-mail:

    Mrs. Gloria SENFAUTE
    EDF - CEIDRE
    905 Av Camp de Menthe
    13097 Aix en Provence
    France

    Tel.: +33 4 42 95 96 28
    Fax: +33 4 42 95 95 00
    E-mail:

    Mr. Paolo BAZZURO
    EUCENTRE
    Via Ferrata, 1
    27100 Pavia
    Italy

    Tel.: +39 0382 5169811
    Fax: +39 0382 529131
    E-mail:


    Last reviewed: 12 September 2014