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Organisation and host
The CSNI workshop on Testing PSHA Results and Benefit of Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment was held from 4-6 February 2015 in Pavia, Italy, hosted by EUCENTRE and IUSS and coordinated by OECD/NEA, IAEA and EDF. This second announcement provided information on the technical content of the workshop.
More information is available on the following workshop pages:
The objective of this workshop was to foster exchanges between geologists, seismologists, statisticians and engineers so as to share experiences in progress related to developments in testing the methodologies of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) and the benefits of Bayesian techniques applied to seismic hazards. The goal was to address the current status of the regulatory arena, identifying and recommending good practices for member countries and exploring future research and development (R&D) to be developed on this topic.
In recent years, increasing efforts have been devoted to the assessment of the reliability of PSHA results. Different kinds of procedures have been tested and many papers have provided useful information on this subject. Consistent with the pattern of previous CSNI workshops, the deliverables and expected results were the following:
a description of the state-of-the-art in methodologies for testing the reliability of PSHA results;
a description of application studies conducted in different areas concerning the testing of PSHA results versus available observations in order to get an objective comparison and to improve the confidence in the results;
a description of the state-of-the-art in Bayesian techniques for seismic hazard assessment;
a description of application studies conducted in different contexts to determine the benefit of Bayesian techniques for seismic hazard assessment;
which testing procedure is the most appropriate depending on the available data;
good practices and recommendations to implement the testing procedures of the PSHA results;
good practices for the implementation of Bayesian techniques in the field of seismic hazard assessment;
R&D activities to be developed on the subject.
The workshop included presentations by international experts and sessions devoted to technical presentations by participants. A final session summarised the discussions and developed conclusions and recommendations for possible further action by the CSNI. All participants were expected to take part in the discussion and in the formulation of conclusions in the final session.
Technical organisation of the workshop
Several international experts gave scientific presentations:
Precarious rocks and related fragile geological features to test or to improve seismic hazard assessment, John Anderson, Nevada Seismological Laboratory, USA.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: combining Cornell-like approaches and data at sites through Bayesian inference, Jacopo Selva, INGV, Italy.
Statistical tests of PSHA models, Roger Musson, British Geological Surveil, UK
List of abstracts accepted for full paper and presentation were as follows:
U.S. Regulatory perspectives on model testing Brittain Hill, Clifford Munson and Jon Ake, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), USA
Testing probabilistic seismic Hazard Estimates against accelerometric data in two countries: France and Turkey Hilal Tasan1, Céline Beauval1, Agnès Helmstetter1, Abdullah Sandikkay2 and Philippe Guéguen1. 1 ISTerre, Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, OSUG, Grenoble, France 2 METU, Department of Civil Engineering, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
Validation of GMPE on very hard rock using global database Hongjun Si,
Seismological Research Institute Inc., Tokyo, Japan
Direct verification of seismic hazard maps Sum Mak and Danijel Schorlemmer,
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
Testing the reliability of seismic hazard assessments in Italy: a critical review Roberto W. Romeo, University of Urbino, Italy
The scoring test on Italian probabilistic seismic hazard estimates developed in the frame of S2-2012 DPC-INGV Project D.Albarello, L.Peruzza and V. D'Amico,
Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Sien OGS (Istit Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica), Trieste Inst Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa
Thirty-Year Bayesian Updating of PHSA for Hinkley Point NPP PSHA testing Gordon Woo, RMS, London, England
Past is the key of a geological principle as Bayesian philosophy applied for seismic hazard analysis José G. Sanchez1, Raúl Pérez Cabañero2 and Maria J. Crespo3 1 CSN, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Geosciences Branch, Madrid, Spain 2 IGME, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Geological Hazard Division, Madrid, Spain 3 PRINCIPIA Ingenieros Consultores, Madrid, Spain
Regulatory view on challenges in PSHA in low seismicity areas Janne Laitonen and Jorma Sandberg, STUK – Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Finland
Validating hazard validation studies: an Italian proof Iunio Iervolino1 and Massimiliano Giorgio2 1 Dipartimento di Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy 2 Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione, Seconda Università di Napoli, Aversa, Italy
Bayesian update of a simplified PSHA model, comparison of different academic cases L. Vaseux and J.M. Thiry, AREVA, France
A Bayesian methodology to update the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Ramon Secanell1, Christophe Martin1, E. Viallet2 and Gloria Senfaute2 1 GEOTER SAS, Clapiers, France 2 EDF, Division Ingénierie Nucléaire, CEIDRE - TEGG / SEPTEN, Aix-en-Provence
A method for testing PSHA outputs against historical seismicity at the scale of a territory; example of France Pierre Labbé, EDF Division Ingénierie Nucléaire, Paris, France.
Seismic hazard assessments: a comparative analysis A. Peresan1,2,4, A. Nekrasova2,3, V. Kossobokov2,3,4 and G.F. Panza1,2,4,5 1 Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Italy 2 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, SAND Group, Trieste 3 IEPT, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation 4 International Seismic Safety Organization (ISSO) 5 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing
Metrics, observations and biases in quantitative assessment of seismic hazard model predictions Edward Brooks1, Seth Stein1, Bruce D. Spencer2 and Antonella Peresan3 1 Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA 2 Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA 3 Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
Revision of earthquake catalogues on probabilistic terms: consequences on PSHA validation M. Mucciarelli, CRS-OGS, Trieste,
Scuola di Ingegneria, Università della Basilicata, Potenza
PSHA updating technique with a Bayesian framework: innovations Nicolas Humbert, EDF, Centre d'Ingénierie Hydraulique Structure / Génie Civil, France
Constraints on long-term seismic hazard from vulnerable stalagmites G. Bokelmann1 and K. Gribovszki1,2 1 Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna 2 Geodetic and Geophysical Research Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Testing PSHA while there are large uncertainties in input data Yong Li,
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
Testing and evaluation in the global earthquake model Danijel Schorlemmer, Sum Mak, Thomas Beutin, Robert Clements, Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton and Jochen Zschau
Bayesian estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for seismic hazard assessment Merlin Keller1, Marine Marcilhac2, Thierry Yalamas2, Ramon Secanell3 and Gloria Senfaute1 1 EDF R&D Departement / CEIDRE-TEGG 2 PHIMECA 3 GEOTER, France
Non-ergodic seismic hazard: using Bayesian updating for site-specific and path-specific effects for ground-motion models Nicolas Kuehn1 and Norman Abrahamson2 1 University of California, Berkeley 2 Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center – Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Testing and centering of ground motion models for use in PSHA based on availableintensity data
Philippe L.A. Renault and Luis A. Dalguer,
Swissnuclear, Olten, Switzerland
Comparison of PSHA results with historical macroseismic observations in south-east France Annalisa Rosti, Maria Rota, Andrea Penna, Emilia Fiorini and Guido Magenes,
Location and accommodation
The workshop was held at EUCENTRE / IUSS in Pavia, Italy.
All presentations and discussions were in English, and a good command of the English language was necessary to fully benefit from the workshop.
The committee organised the sessions and the final program for the workshop. The following persons formed the organising committee of the workshop: